But whichever party emerges triumphant after the parliamentary elections, nowhere is it written that it will get to rule, and the battle to form a coalition government, the ultimate marriage of convenience, could rage for months to come.

Polls put the center-right ODS from 1.5 to 4 percentage points ahead of the left-leaning ČSSD of Prime Minister Jiří Paroubek, but in the 2002 and 1998 elections ČSSD was trailing even further behind its chief rival, yet won the day. All signs now point to a close contest, and barring another ODS- ČSSD “opposition agreement” – the remotest of possibilities, given that Paroubek and ODS party chairman Mirek Topolánek devoted much of their first television debate to trading insults, and refused to shake hands afterwards – a three-party coalition with a slim majority.

“It’s very similar to the situation four years ago, only now the Greens look set to replace the Freedom Union in the role of junior – and very unreadable – coalition member,” said Štěpán Kotrba, a political analyst for the Internet daily Britské listy.

A subject of great debate is just how loyal a coalition member the Greens would be, as they are considered both opaque and centrist, with their leader, Martin Bursík, having been a member of several other parties in the past, and seeming to side with ODS and ČSSD in the same breath.

“The Green Party hasn’t ‘identified’ itself, from the traditional parliament party point of view, and so is very unpredictable,” said political scientist Petr Just.

President Václav Klaus, the founder of ODS, criticized the Greens, calling them “an undefined grouping of independents,” a characterization party spokeswoman Eva Rolečková rejected, saying, “We have a platform, which is entirely consistent with the movement of the Greens who are in parliaments in 15 European countries.”

With Klaus’ ideological rival, former president Václav Havel, openly supporting the Greens, conventional wisdom holds that they are a greater threat to ODS and certainly to the “new” Freedom Union, which despite its “It’s legal” campaign and rebranding effort aimed at attracting young, disaffected voters, looked set to fall short of the 5 percent threshold of support needed to enter parliament (see “Down ‘n’ dirty, CBW, May 8, 2006). Polling at 5.4 percent, KDU-ČSL, could return to parliament, bolstered by their strong support base of conservative voters in South Moravia and South Bohemia. Those who have voted Freedom Union in past elections will likely be divided between Greens and ODS.

“There are a great number of possible coalitions,” Just said. “A lot will depend not only on the election results, but on the possibility to form a coalition. It’s not written that it must be the winner of the election who forms a government. The winner might be unable to form a (viable) coalition.”

Coalitions of the unwilling

Consistently the third-strongest party in parliament since 1989, the Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSČM), has never been part of a coalition government. But with the largely unreformed party polling at 13 percent — more than the Greens and KDU-ČSL combined — it is certain again to join ODS and ČSSD in the chamber of deputies. The only question is whether the Greens, or KDU-ČSL, or both will be in the picture, as pollsters see a larger swing vote than in previous contests.

“Developments at the end of the election campaign could be dramatic, because undecided voters will be shifting from one party to another and will also consider whether to go to the polls at all,” STEM polling agency Jan Hartl director told the Czech News Agency (ČTK).

Assuming that five parties, all but the Freedom Union, make it past the post, there are several possible coalitions.

If ODS wins it could well seek a coalition with the Greens and Christian Democrats, the perennial junior partner, now governing alongside ČSSD, but a member of each government during socialism as a part of the Národní Fronta, and responsible for the demise of two others these last four years. But, as noted, the Greens, apart from being environmentally conscious, are largely political unknowns with no pro-business track record. This highly volatile coalition would make sense only if the KDU-ČSL and Greens each obtain more that 10 percent of the vote, and ODS close to 30 percent.

The ODS and fellow conservatives KDU-ČSL could also try to go it alone, but as a minority government would have to seek ad hoc support ahead of every vote in parliament, and wouldn’t last long in power. ODS could also seek ČSSD’s tacit support, but that tact is also very risky, as the cases of former ČSSD Prime Ministers Vladimír Špidla and Stanislav Gross demonstrate.

Swing voters, “wasted” votes

The ODS could also win but be unable to find a coalition partner, and so lose, with the ČSSD winning over the Greens (natural allies of Social Democrats throughout Europe) and with the quiet support of the KSČM. But this too would be a very unstable left-center minority government.

Should the ČSSD come from behind to win, it could seek behind-the-scenes support of the Communists, which could prove a very stable de facto minority government. The Social Democrats has ruled out an official ČSSD- KSČM coalition. The ČSSD could also seek the ad hoc support of all parties: KSČM on social issues like health and education; the Greens on the environment; and ODS for problems of international and domestic security and business.

A ČSSD coalition with the Greens and KDU-ČSL — a kind of new anti-communist coalition — is highly improbable; Špidla took a similar route and his government nearly collapsed under pressure from the far-left wing of his party. Besides, the KDU-ČSL has twice brought a ČSSD-led coalition to collapse.

If the Greens or KDU-ČSL enter parliament, but not both, the equation is much the same: ODS and ČSSD publicly courting a small, troublesome party and privately looking to gain the favor of the Communists. The ODS or ČSSD could pair up with the victorious small party and seek ad hoc support on a range of issues, or, in the interests of securing a “stable political environment in the Czech Republic” — as the 1998 Opposition agreement put it — form the ultimate marriage of convenience.

“People have rather been flirting with support for the Greens,” the pollster Hartl said, adding that after “sobering up” some voters had shifted back to the ČSSD. If enough undecided or swing voters fear a vote from the Greens or Christian Democrats will be a wasted protest vote, the right-leaning will vote ODS, with the left going to ČSSD and KSČM, which again would mean a victorious ODS could still end up the opposition to a Social Democrat minority government with the support of the KSČM.

Irena Ryšánková is a parliamentary analyst for public broadcaster Česká televize